Risk Management

A new Bayesian Backtesting framework

We propose a new Unconditional Coverage backtest for VaR-forecasts under a Bayesian framework that significantly minimise the direct and indirect effects of p$-$hacking or other biased outcomes in decision$-$making, in general. As a consequence of …

Bayesian Value-at-Risk backtesting. The case of annuity pricing

We propose a new Unconditional Coverage backtest for VaR-forecasts under a Bayesian framework that significantly minimise the direct and indirect effects of p-hacking or other biased outcomes in decision-making, in general.

Comparison of Pricing Approaches for Longevity Markets

Longevity risk has been an ongoing issue for many insurance companies and pension funds. Due to the fast advancements of medicine and quality of life changes, it has made previously forecasted longevity rates have been different to that of currently …